Saturday, July 10, 2010

LeBitch Move: The Impact of "The Decision" on the NBA

Like most people who follow the NBA, I tuned into ESPN Thursday night to watch LeBron James announce what team he was going to play for in the coming season. Four teams were in the running for his services at this point and I think Bill Simmons of ESPN.com made a great comparison with the four teams. Each team represented a card that would reflect on Bron's personality. You had Loyalty(Cleveland), Fame(New York), Winning(Chicago), and Help(Miami). Most people figured that LeBron would stay in Cleveland or bolt to the fame of New York. As a Bulls fan, I had pretty much given up hope of LeBron coming to Chicago, and the last place I wanted him to play was Miami to join up with Dywane Wade and his newly acquired lapdog Chris Bosh.
These three had already turned free agency into a joke with rumors about their futures running rampant for a solid week. Wade and Bosh certainly did not come out of this situation looking saints as it seemed they led much of the NBA when those two wanted to be in Miami all along. Most figured Bron would want to compete against those two for the right to challenge Kobe Bryant for NBA supremacy but in a move shocking a lot of people, LeBron joined the party on South Beach and opened himself upon to a floodgate of criticism over the last 48 hours.
The Shot. The Fumble. The Drive. The Decision
All four of those things destroyed the emotions of Cleveland sports fans at some point, but I believe the Decision will go down as the worst as their hometown hero plunged a knife into the back of the Cavs and their fans. It came out after the announcement that LeBron was always going to play in Miami, no matter what he said to Jim Gray, who isn't exactly the best interviewer if you want to hear someone ask tough questions. Gray lobbed softball after softball to allow LeBron to defend his reasoning. When Mike Wilbon took over the questioning, however, the game had changed. Wilbon wasn't exactly throwing 95 mph heat at LeBron but he was trying to make ESPN's golden child think a little bit. The question that got to Bron the most was when Wilbon asked LeBron what he thought of Cleveland burning his jersey. For a split second, you could see the pain in LeBron's face and it seemed he was really affected. However, his actions deserved to be met with something like that.
His actions during the NBA free agency period were self-promoting, arrogant and narcissistic. The process of getting a ESPN prime-time special to announce where he was going to play was awful. Ripping the hearts of Cavs fans and Ohioans alike on national TV without saying goodbye was inexcusable. LeBron can be slightly absolved for some of that as the lack of a father figure in his life and his strange need to be liked instead of being successful, a la Wilt Chamberlain, would make him more susceptible to bad decisions. His advisor, Maverick Carter, should be ashamed at what he and his friends turned this process into.
Many say LeBron didn't owe Cleveland anything but he did owe them more than people think. The Cavs ADORED him. LeBron probably could've killed 15 people in a drunk driving accident and the fans would've forgiven him. He was a god in that city and he abandoned them without saying goodbye. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert was quick to come out with a scathing letter attacking LeBron and basically calling him a spoiled child. However, that is a double edged sword as Gilbert enabled LeBron to take whatever he wanted as Gilbert believed that by allowing him to run rampant, he would stay with the Cavs.
Of course, there will be many people who accuse me of being upset that LeBron didnt come to my Chicago Bulls. After hearing his demands, I'm glad he's not in Chi-town. Jerry Reinsdorf, long underrated as an owner, would not give LeBron the special privilages that he was used to with the Cavs and that soured LeBron's "posse" on the Bulls. Reinsdorf did not do such things for Michael Jordan, a player who LeBron can never be compared to again, so why would he do it for a player who hasn't really accomplished anything? The Bulls will be a contender without LeBron and maybe if the Magic dont match the qualifying offer on JJ Redick, the Bulls can hang with the Heat. Of course, this all depends on how much Derrick Rose improves this year, as he is the driving force behind that team.
There are three scenarios that I would want to see play out in the playoffs this year. First off, I would love to see the Bulls take down the Heat for my own sake, but that is least important one. Im sure most NBA fans (outside of Seattle and Miami of course) sympathize with the Cavs and would love to see them make the playoffs this year. I would be thrilled if they would make it as the 8 seed in the East and somehow, someway would knock off the Super Best Friends (or the Menage a Twats as I like to call them).
The final scenario I would want to see of course is Lakers-Heat in the Finals. Pat Riley (you know Spolestra wont last past Christmas) vs. Phil Jackson in Phil's last dance. Kobe vs. the Super Best Friends. Old NBA vs. New NBA (I'll get to that next post). I would love to see it go to a Game 7 where Kobe Bryant makes a shot to put LA up with a couple of seconds left, only for the game to end with a LeBron James errant jumper, which would settle the Kobe vs. LeBron debate and cement Kobe's legacy as the 3rd best player in NBA history.

Next post I'll cover playoff predictions, thoughts on the upcoming CBA, and how the NBA has changed since the 2000's started.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Orange Bowl Breakdown/Preview

Well, it's finally gameday and it is time for a breakdown of the Iowa-Georgia Tech matchup. I will break down numerous positions and draw a conclusion based off of the statistical breakdown.

QUARTERBACK

IA - Ricky Stanzi: 56.0% CP, 2186 yds, 15 TD's, 14 INT's

GT - Josh Nesbitt: 47.7% CP, 1689 yds, 10 TD's, 4 INT's

If you just look at the passing stats, it would look as if Iowa has the clear advantage. However, that does not tell the story. Nesbitt is not required to pass as much in triple option, which has lowered his numbers. He also has almost 1000 yards rushing to accompany his passing stats. If you ask any Iowa fan, most people will say Stanzi certainly makes the game interesting. He has probably taken an average of about 6 years off the lives of every Iowa fan this year. 3 Stanzi's can show up in any given game, and possibly back to back plays. Good Stanzi, OK Stanzi, and "Oh my god, are we sure he's not playing for the other team?" Stanzi. Iowa needs the last mentioned Stanzi to stay home. A good or ok Stanzi is incredibly effective and helps the Hawkeye offense achieve the balance that they want. This category is hard to compare as both quarterbacks are good for the offense that each team likes to run.

ADVANTAGE: Tie

RUNNING BACKS

IA - Adam Robinson: 167 for 775, 4,6 ypc, 5 TD's
IA - Brandon Wegher: 146 for 528, 3.6 ypc, 7 TD's

GT - Jonathan Dwyer: 221 for 1346, 6.1 ypc, 14 TD's
GT - Anthony Allen: 61 for 597, 9.8 ypc, 5 TD's

This is one part of the offense where Georgia Tech has a clear advantage on Iowa. Even though GT is more of a running team and teams know that, their yard per carry averages are borderline ridiculous. They use the triple option extremely well and it is reflected in their stats. Iowa's running backs have been solid this year. Nothing too great, but they haven't been bad either. Starter Jewel Hampton did not take a snap this year so Iowa turned to a RS Freshmen and a true Freshmen, and the results have been fine. However, this one goes to Georgia Tech.

ADVANTAGE: Georgia Tech

WIDE RECIEVERS

IA - DJK: 41 for 687, 16.8 ypr, 2 TD's
IA - Marvin McNutt: 30 for 653, 21.8 ypr, 7 TD's

GT - Demaryius Thomas: 46 for 1154, 25.1 ypr, 8 TD's
GT - Embry Peeples: 8 for 244, 30.5 ypr, 1 TD's.

This is the part of the offense where the Hawkeyes have a clear advantage on the Yellow Jackets. Iowa possesses 2 good wideouts who can do it all. Georgia Tech's top wideout runs two patterns: fade and fly. The key to negating GT's vertical passing game is to not overcommit to the run, which gives the 6'3 Thomas single coverage on the outside. When he gets that, he's typically at the advantage. Iowa's best receiver is in the form of a converted quarterback. McNutt is the big play receiver for Iowa and has had some key, key plays for Iowa this year. Last play against Michigan State, anybody? This part of the offense goes to Iowa.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa

OFFENSIVE LINE

This part of the offense is hard to do a breakdown for, but this matchup plays out like the quarterback matchup. Both teams have extremely different styles, and it is reflected in the line play. Iowa loves to mash up front with lots of big guys that enjoy taking defenders head on. Georgia Tech linemen are smaller and quicker who thrive on using cut blocks to put defenders on the ground. Both of these styles are effective for each team which gives our stats breakdown its 2nd tie.

ADVANTAGE: Tie

FRONT SEVEN

I have not been able to find the stats that I want for this section, as ESPN seems to be lacking in yards allowed and turnovers forced. But we will carry on anyways. This is the group that best captures the Big 10 vs. ACC/SEC perceptions. Iowa's defense is extremely disciplined and knows their roles. Georgia Tech is super quick and rely on their athleticism to make up for any shortcomings that they may have. For this, I have to rely on games that I have personally seen this year. Iowa's defense has been extremely stingy against the run, and limiting opponents to below their average for points. Georgia Tech has been involved in a shootout every time I watched them. For that reason, advantage Hawkeyes.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa

SECONDARY
Once again, no stats to help me on this breakdown. Back to reviewing game tape. Iowa's secondary is up and down. There has been times when their Cover Two defense has been shredded by a spread offense. However, they are also extremely opportunistic, hauling in key interceptions when it matters. Georgia Tech's secondary is not as strong as the Yellow Jackets would like. Their run defense is weak, which takes away from the secondary as they typically have to move a safety up into the box. For this reason, we give this category to the Hawks.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa

KICKING GAME

IA - Daniel Murray: 18 for 25, 72%
IA - Ryan Donahue: 57 for 2352, 41.3 avg.

GT - Scott Blair: 14 for 19, 74%
GT - N/A

This section is the one that scares Iowa fans the most. Outside of Penn State last year, has Murray nailed a kick that had a lot of pressure? This year, he has missed some very routine kicks that kept games a lot closer than they should have been. Blair has equally been up and down for Georgia Tech. He has made some big kicks, but he has also missed some key ones as well. The punting game is the X-Factor. Donahue has came up big time and time again for the Hawkeyes. However, this advantage goes to the Yellow Jackets.

ADVANTAGE: Georgia Tech

WINNER: Iowa (3-2-2)

There you have it. In this statistical breakdown, Iowa wins....barely. Hopefully you all tune into watch what promises to be a very good game.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Week One Recap

Well, the first week of Big 10 play is over so I believe it is time for a recap. I'll try to get one of these up every Monday to recap the past week and provide a short preview for the next week of games.

OBSERVATIONS

- How long can Ohio State hold on without Evan Turner? The Buckeyes are quickly 0-2 in Big 10 play and it does not promise to get any easier. A possible Big 10 championship season has turned into a year in which we might see OSU fighting for a NCAA Tournament berth.

- How much will Northwestern's lack of depth hurt them? Losing to Michigan State is nothing to get upset about, but when it is by 21 points on your home floor, it is a little alarming. Northwestern has been hot as of late, but without star Kevin Coble, can the Wildcats make their first ever NCAA appearance?

- Blake Hoffarber of Minnesota could be the key to the Golden Gophers season. He is shooting lights out from downtown this year, coming in at better than 50% so far. If Hoffarber can keep that up, look for Minnesota to pull a couple of upsets and get a solid NCAA seed. They'll have a chance for a BIG upset on Tuesday, as they travel to Mackey Arena to play #4 Purdue (6 CT, ESPN).

- Can Purdue finally get the respect they deserve? It's starting to finally seem that way. After being dismissed by most "experts" as a national title contender, Purdue showed that they are here to stay on Saturday. They absolutely embarrassed #6 West Virginia in West Lafayette, as the game was never in doubt in the 2nd half. The pressure defense of Purdue forced West Virginia into many turnovers, Devin Ebanks and DeSean Butler could never get into a rhythm.

GAME OF THE WEEK

- Illinois def. Northwestern, 89-83 (OT)

UPSET OF THE WEEK

- Wisconsin def. #15 Ohio State, 65-43

GAMES TO WATCH IN WEEK 2

- #20 Wisconsin @ #11 Michigan State (Wednesday, 530 CT ESPN)
- Michigan @ Penn State (Thursday, 6 CT ESPN2)
- #4 Purdue @ #20 Wisconsin (Saturday, 12:30 CT, CBS)

Look for an Orange Bowl preview tomorrow morning and a running diary of the Orange Bowl tomorrow night, written by yours truly.